Title : 이머징 마켓 진출 전략의 인과관계에 대한 탐색적 연구: 시스템 사고에 의한 접근 (Exploratory Study on Causality of Expansion Strategy into Emerging Market: Systems Thinking Approach)

Author(s) : 정창권(Chung, Chang-Kwon), 이동현(Lee, Dong-Hyun)

Abstract : This study suggests a set of Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) of Causality Mechanism which integrates the matter of characteristics of emerging market and its expansion strategies. In order to make CLD more objective, all causalities are articulated from recent 55 studies (2000~2012) of SSCI Top Journals. This approach is valuable in that it is a first try to draw all the causalities from rigorous literature review regarding emerging market strategy. The 5 CLDs will show and clarify the strategies of how to expand into emerging market for MNCs. In sum, political activity and institutional void is a critical factor related to characteristics of emerging market, and CSV and cultural distance should be considered as a leverage point. For all this study’s contribution to clarify the causality of emerging market strategies with abundant literature review, the study has its limits in integrating and testing CLD.

Keywords: 이머징 마켓, 인과관계, 인과지도, CSV, 문화적 거리 (Emerging Market, Causality, Causal Loop Diagram, CSV, Cultural Distance)

Title : 1989년 이후 이중적 중미관계: 장저민과 클린턴의 인지지도 분석을 중심으로 (Empirical Analysis of the Back and Forth Relationship Between China and U.S since 1989: focusing on the Jiangzemin and Clinton's cognitive map)

Author(s) : 정다훈(CHUNG, Da Hoon)

Abstract : This paper aims at investigating and identifying the factor that has led the back and forth relationship between China and the United States since 1989. Previous studies on this subject addressed the issue by taking either of two approaches: one with the micro view that interprets the back and forth relationship in the context of the end of the Cold war, on other hand, with the macro view that interprets the fragile relationship in the context of the rise of China. However, neither of the approaches explains with sufficiency the question at hand. Hence for the inquiry, this article suggests a fresh view by exploring alternative method of using a cognitive map of each nation’s leader, Jiangzemin and Bill Clinton. This article provides an empirical analysis through the Selected works of Jiangzemin and the speeches of Bill Clinton in 1998 for the first time in the field of Sino-US relationship studies in Korea. With the results of the cognitive map analysis, we can reach the following four points. Firstly, indicators of the forth relationship between China and the US are: i) the recognition by Bill Clinton on the importance of China’s economic growth and; ii) the US’s cooperation of science technology with China. Second, the conflict between China and the US results from the discordance of opinions on the matter of human rights and military power. Second, the conflict will inevitably arise on environmental issues around the globe including a global warming. Third, while China has yet to find a legitimate reason to agree upon these issues with the US, the US urges China of its cooperation. Lastly, Both China and the US attach great importance to the alliance with Japan. This implicates that relatively, issues involving Japan take more control in the China-US relationship, than those of Korea Peninsula.

Keywords : Cognitve Map, Sino-U.S. Relationship, Jiangzemin, Clinton

Title : 시스템다이내믹스 기법을 이용한 건강도시화 정책의 사회적비용 절감효과 분석 (Applying System Dynamics Model to Estimate the Effects of Healthy City Policies on Reducing Social Cost)

Author(s) : 김은정(Kim, Eun Jung), 김영표(Kim, Young-Pyo)

Abstract : The purpose of this paper is to estimate effects of healthy city policies on reducing social costs. The analyses were dune at the cities, counties, and communities levels in 2009, and covered Seoul Metropolitan Area(SMA). For estimation of reducing social costs, it developed a system dynamics(SD) model that analyzed causal relationships between physical inactivity rates, the number of deaths, medical expenses, and total social costs. Simulation period of SD was from 2009 to 2030. Three alternatives were proposed with combinations of length of bike lanes, number of bus routes, crime rates, self-reported good health status rates, and obesity rates. The total estimated cost of physical inactivities from 2009 to 2030 was 31.9 trillion won from the future forecast without policies. As a result of simulations with three alternatives, there were economic benefit approximately from 119.7 billion won to 1.16 trillion won. This study contributed to better understanding the economic benefits of healthy cities that were associated with design of built environment and physical activity. It also emphasized the importance of healthy cities planning as one of national welfare polices.

Keywords: 건강도시, 도시환경, 신체비활동, 사회적 비용, 시스템다이내믹스 (Healthy City, Built Environment, Physical

Inactivity, Social Cost, System Dynamics)

｢한국 시스템다이내믹스 연구｣ 제13권 제3호 (2012. 10) : 5-22

Korean System Dynamics Review, 13(3): 5-22

Title: Institutional political dynamics: political cycles between the liberal and the conservative

Author(s): 김동환(Dong-Hwan Kim), 칼리드 사에드(Khalid Saeed)

Abstract : Although many system dynamists point out the close relationship between institutional economics and system dynamics, the relationship between institutional political theory and system dynamics approach is not explicitly appreciated yet. We developed a system dynamics model to investigate theoretical propositions of institutional politics. Our system dynamics model showed how the endogenous mechanism can explain the political changes as well as orders. Although simple in the causal structure, our model could show a complex behavior of political competition. Several simulation results imply that some unexpected changes in election and power competition may come from the endogenous system rather than from exogenous factors such as economic and environmental shocks.

Keywords : politics, institutional, the liberal, the conservative, political cycle

[13권 2호] 지역사회서비스 품질, 만족도, 재이용의사의 동태성에 관한 연구

조성숙 / 계명대학교 사회복지학과 조교수

[13권 2호] Comparison of Three Optimization Methods Using Korean Population Data

Oh, Deok-Kyo (오덕교) / Research fellow at Korea Corporate Governance Service (KCGS, 한국기업지배구조원)

[13권 2호] 시스템사고로 본 건강도시화 정책이 지역주민의 걷기실천율에 미치는 영향 분석

김은정 / 국토연구원 지역연구본부 책임연구원
김영표 / 국토연구원 주택연구본부 선임연구위원

[13권2호] 현물, 선도, 옵션 시장 간의 동태적 관계에 대한 시스템 사고적 접근

권오상 / 한국과학기술원 기술경영전문대학원 겸직교수, NH농협증권 구조화파생팀 이사

김헌식/미래콘텐츠 문화전략연구소

김동환/중앙대학교

문태훈/중앙대학교

안남성/한국에너지기술평가원